Evaluating the Probabilistic side of Proactive Computing using Cognitive Modelling Methodology and the Statistical Inference of User’s Cognitive States

摘要

In the following paper we present the work inprogress, which aims to validate through theoretical and em-pirical study the probabilistic side of proactive computing. Wechoose the cognitive modelling methodology as an approach toimplement the probabilistic inference of user’s cognitive statesduring online activity. We create four cognitive models, whichsimulate various cognitive states of a user during the task ofonline search of medical terminology. Additionally, we elaborateseveral potential scenarios, which may take place during the giventask, and we associate these scenarios with our models as theintegral elements of the proactive system behaviour. Ultimately,by applying the rules of the Bayesian statistics, we envision to testthe principles of proactive computing in the frame of probabilisticapproach.